Bot Scandal at Full Tilt Poker

Robopoker reports on a poker bot scandal at Full Tilt Poker that has spawned a discussion on TwoPlusTwo.com that has more than 1700 replies over four days.

2+2 user SukitTrebek's Poker Tracker hand history database revealed to him that a number of regular players in the Full Tilt $200 no-limit hold'em games are very likely bots. SukitTrebek carefully gathered evidence — including playing against the supposed bots and repeatedly taking advantage of giant holes in their game, until, first, the bot programmer apparently manually took over when SukitTrebek and the bot were head-up, and second, the bots would leave the table whenever SukitTrebek joined a game they were in.

SukitTrebek presented his evidence to Full Tilt's management, and kept goosing them from time to time. They asked him, in order to help their internal investigation, to not go public with his accusaution while their investigation went on.

The alleged bots disappeared from Full Tilt. Some weeks later, SukitTrebek received email from FullTilt saying that the investigation was complete. Not long after that, the bots reappeared! SukitTrebek went public on 2+2's Internet poker forum early Wednesday morning, and the thread exploded.

Late on Thursday, 2+2 user FTPSean, identifying himself as a representative of Full Tilt Poker, started a new thread:

After doing our due diligence in this case, we came to the following determinations:

• During the investigation we found the evidence to be inconclusive in supporting either determination (human or bot).
• After careful consideration, the evidence did not warrant the seizure of funds and permanent account closure.
• We stand by our decision. Having said that, re-opening an account after an investigation such as this one does not mean we have made an irreversible decision. We will continue to reevaluate this situation.

I particularly like the third bullet point in all its weaselly, waffly glory; We stand by our decision ... We will continue to reevaluate this situation. Robopoker says Full Tilt management is in "damage control mode."

Two things stand out to me from this story;

First, the bot operator is not terribly bright. If I were running a profitable bot on a poker site, and I had just had my account locked down and then reopened, I would not celebrate by firing up my bot at full capacity again. I think I would draw down my bankroll and lay low for a while.

Secondly, it is really surprising that this bot wins any money over time... except that the evidence is clear that it does. It was found out because the Poker Tracker data for a number of tight-aggressive players was uncannily identical, statistic for statistic. Robopoker claims that his own bots' statistics don't converge anywhere near that closely, because his pays attention to board texture and opponent playing style. SukitTrebek thinks this guy is not a very good poker player, but has stumbled into a formula for playing that is good enough to beat the games ... for now.

How can a bot that can't adjust to opponents still make money? That's easy: Mike Caro's Law of Least Tilt. A bot never tilts, It wins or loses according to the fall of the cards and the basic strength or weakness of its algorithm. Real human players almost invariably go on tilt — lose their psychological balance and play badly, perhaps without even realizing it. Tilt is responsible for a noticeable fraction of many players' losses. Bots don't tilt; and so a bot is going to have an edge against a human player who uses the same strategy as the bot.