Unstoppable Poker Bots?

Internet security guru Ed Felten takes note of a scary story on MSNBC that warns us that <fnord!> sophisticated card-playing robots – known as “bots” in the nomenclature of the Web – are being used on commercial gambling sites to fleece newcomers, the strategy-impaired and maybe even above-average players. </fnord!>

Felten himself looks askance at efforts of online poker sites to deter bot playing as well as collusion:

The online casinos are kidding themselves if they think they can enforce a no-bots rule. How can they tell what a player is doing in the privacy of his own home? Even if they can tell that a human's hands are on the keyboard, how can they tell whether that human is getting advice from a bot?

The article discusses yet another unenforceable rule of online poker: the ban on collusion between players. If two or more players simply show each other their cards, they gain an advantage over the others at the table. There's no way for an online casino to prevent players from conducting back-channel communications, so a ban on collusion is impossible to enforce.

By reiterating their anti-bot and anti-collusion rules, and by claiming to have mysterious enforcement mechanisms, online casinos may be able to stem the tide of cheating for a while. But eventually, bots and collusion will become the norm, and lone human players will be driven out of all but the lowest stakes games.

But there is another strategy. An online casino could encourage bots, and even set up bots-only games. The game would then become not a human vs. human card game but a human vs. human battle between bot designers for geekly mastery. I'll bet there are plenty of programmers out there who would like to give it a try.

The MSNBC article, once you get past the menacing shadows and ominous organ chords, presents a pretty good view of the state of the art of poker bots: the cutting edge of poker bots can play really well against a single player, but are much more at sea in full games with a constantly changing cast of characters. A reasonably skilled programmer can write a bot that could beat a soft game (I have fond memories of playing against r00lbot on the old irc.poker.net). It's a major challenge to produce a bot that can hold its own against skilled players, as Darse Billings and others at the University of Alberta can attest.

Collusion, on the other hand, is detectable over time because it has a definite signature. Colluders with knowledge about each others' cards can exploit edges that would appear to be marginal or negative-EV to someone without that knowledge. (Think of folding a flush draw because of knowing that two of your nine outs are gone and the pot is offering the wrong price, when an ignorant player would call thinking the odds were right). Colluders can also exploit occasional large-edge situations, e.g. when a hand that might not be the absolute nuts is known to be the nuts because of cards that are out of play.

Detection of colluders becomes a problem similar in kind to traffic analysis in signals intelligence. Effective colluders have to take advantage of their edge in such a way as to not reveal it, which means not taking advantage of it some (presumably randomized) part of the time. But that reduces the edge from collusion. If collusion becomes widespread, then (if the online poker sites are on the ball) collusion is widely detected and widely quashed. If collusion is low-key, then it doesn't get quashed ... and it doesn't take too much money out of the game. Sounds like there's some kind of Nash equilibrium to be reached, given a particular level of online poker server collusion vigilance.

But this doesn't alter the fact that at this point in time the fish are biting, and there are more of them every day. There's enough money for all of us to win, bots, colluders, and the merely skilled and experienced players, right now.

(via boingboing)

Di Fi Seeks to Block Expanded Casino San Pablo

According to a report in today's San Francisco Chronicle, California Senator Dianne Feinstein has authored a one-sentence bill that would revoke the status of Casino San Pablo as land held in trust for the Lytton Band of Pomo Indians. If the bill becomes law, then it's back to square one: the Lyttons lose their shot at gambling revenues, and CSP remains what it always has been: a barely-if-at-all-profitable cardroom.

I'd rank Feinstein's chances at getting this through the Republican-controlled Congress somewhere between "slim" and "none". She's a Democrat, at least in name, and the state's Republican governor has already stated his opposition to her bill. Also, it's not clear whether her sudden opposition to CSP's expansion is due to actual community concern or if she's throwing a bone to John Tibbetts, Dennis Sammut, and the other local card club owners who have been consistently using what legal and political clout they could muster to prevent the slot machines from showing up at CSP.

I'm Being Followed by a Goon's Shadow

Associated Press, via SF Gate:

A London-to-Washington flight was diverted to Maine when it was discovered that passenger Yusuf Islam – formerly known as singer Cat Stevens – was on a government watch list and barred from entering the country.

United Airlines Flight 919 was en route to Dulles International Airport when the match was made Tuesday between a passenger and a name on the watch list, said Nico Melendez, a spokesman for the Transportation Security Administration.

The plane was met by federal agents at Maine's Bangor International Airport around 3 p.m., Melendez said.

Homeland Security Department spokesman Dennis Murphy identified the passenger as Islam. "He was interviewed and denied admission to the United States on national security grounds," Murphy said.

He said Islam would be put on the first available flight out of the country Wednesday.

Officials had no details about why the peace activist might be considered a risk to the United States. Islam had visited New York in May for a charity event and to promote a DVD of his 1976 MajiKat tour. [emphasis added]

What, were they afraid that the former Cat Stevens would undermine American resolve by singing a song that could touch the hearts and minds of the people? GMAFB.

Meanwhile, Jeralyn Merrit points out that despite more than 5,000 arrests and detentions since September 11, 2001, the Department of Justice under John Ashcroft hasn't successfully convicted a single terrorist. Even Terence Hallinan had a better conviction record than this. If Ashcroft were the DA of a big city, the law-and-order lobby would be howling for his blood.

But you can sleep soundly tonight, knowing that America is safe from second-rate has-been singer-songwriters.

Fiction TV

It might not be in the same league as Dan Rather screwing the pooch over a memo that turned out to be "not real" (although the hoax memo apparently reflects the alleged author's real opinions of the time).

But the folks at ESPN seem to have been playing fast and loose with the play of key hands in their coverage of the World Series of Poker. There were numerous reports that in ESPN's coverage of the 2003 WSOP, the play of certain hands were, ahem, creatively recreated. Now, though, Paul Phillips has caught ESPN in a continuity error that clearly indicates that the hand in question was depicted with edited footage:

1) Hmmm, what do I have again?

2) How did these chips materialize in my right hand? They weren't there a couple frames ago. And if Phil Hellmuth has just re-raised me, why are there no chips in front of him and why does he look so uninvolved?

3) Oh good, I still have JT. I've put over 20K into this pot so far, I have trip jacks, and I have only 40K left. I guess I'll... fold? That doesn't sound like me.

4) Still, I decide to fold. Hey, those chips that had just materialized in my right hand have now disappeared! Ah well, easy come easy go.

5) See you later, trip jacks. I hope the magical teleporting chips return someday.

On 2+2, Paul explains why, even before he found the continuity error, he thought ESPN's producers faked this hand:

* the improbability of the laydown
* the improbability of the laydown FROM THAT PLAYER
* the improbability of the turn re-raise
* the improbability of the turn re-raise FROM THAT PLAYER
* tony's body language when he folded
* the fact that we know they faked other hands
* the fact that we know they faked other hands SOMETIMES EVEN WHEN THE CARDS WERE FLIPPED UP!

You all noticed, didn't you, that the WSOP broadcasts are presented by "ESPN Original Entertainment"? If I learned that (say) Survivor was fixed, I wouldn't think twice; and in fact it's pretty likely that Survivor's producers have their thumbs on the scales. What this WSOP video indicates is that ESPN's producers view television poker on the same level of importance as reality TV.

I've Found Out What Happened to John Edwards

John Kerry spoke today at New York University:

....our most important task is to fight...and to win...the war on terrorism.

....In fighting the war on terrorism, my principles are straight forward. The terrorists are beyond reason. We must destroy them.

I've found out why John Edwards has disappeared from sight: he's been dropped from the Democratic ticket and replaced by Vladimir Putin.

(via Kevin Drum)

File Sharing

Over at Crooked Timber, commenter dsquared has dared to defy the wrath of the RIAA by posting the ASCII tablature to Johnny Ramone's guitar solo for the Ramones' "I Wanna Be Sedated." Ramone died earlier this week.

E-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-|-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-|-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-|-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0 
B—————————————————|—————————————————|—————————————————|———————————————— 
G—————————————————|—————————————————|—————————————————|———————————————— 
D—————————————————|—————————————————|—————————————————|————————————————
A—————————————————|—————————————————|—————————————————|———————————————— 
E—————————————————|—————————————————|—————————————————|————————————————  

(via boingboing)

Cal/OSHA Sez: Porn Stars Must Use Condoms

This came through the Associated Press wire:

Two adult film companies fined for allowing unprotected sex on movie set

(09-17) 06:57 PDT LOS ANGELES (AP) –

California officials fined two adult film companies more than $30,000 each for allowing actors to perform without using condoms, the first time the state has taken such action.

The fines against Evasive Angles and TTB Productions follow an investigation into a complaint filed by a porn industry worker. The companies have 15 days to appeal the decision Wednesday by the state Division of Occupational Health and Safety.

Susan Gard, agency spokeswoman, said the companies violated California law when actors performed sex scenes without using condoms. She said state law requires employers to protect workers who are exposed to blood or bodily fluids on the job.

"Any bodily fluid is considered infectious," she said. "That means barrier equipment must be used."

Four actors were diagnosed earlier this year with HIV, prompting state officials to say they would investigate whether state laws were being followed. Officials at Evasive Angles and TTB Productions could not immediately be reached for comment; calls to them went unanswered early Friday.

The companies were also cited for not notifying authorities about actors who contracted HIV on the job, officials said.

It is a widely held belief among adult film producers that condom use hurts profits because customers would rather see unprotected sex. However, some large adult film production companies require actors to use condoms.

(via SF Gate)

Quote of the Week

Quoth Brad DeLong:

Leading neoconservative Francis Fukuyama is shrill. The Bush's administration's latest Big Lie has pushed him over the edge, into shrill unholy madness. Fukuyama is not only shrill, he is the new Grand Heresiarch of the Order of the Shrill – as he asks the Bush administration, "Just what part of 'Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Fukuyama R'lyeh wagn'nagl fhtagn!' don't you understand?"

Study: Pr0n Is Good for You

"Pornography is actually good for you in many ways," says Dr. Alan McKee, principal investigator of a research group in Australia, whose government-funded study ("Understanding Pornography in Australia") surveyed viewers of porn on the Internet. The Register quotes McKee, referring to a report on news.com.au whose link has evidently expired.

The Register also quotes Clive Hamilton, executive director of something called the Australia Institute and author of draft legislation to force ISPs to filter pornography to prevent any access by minors: "No man who regularly uses pornography can have a healthy sexual relationship with a woman." That's a rather broad blanket of a statement, don't you think?

(via The Sideshow)

"Well, I'm Back," He Said.

I pulled into the garage just on the dot of 9:30 PM last night, having been on the road since 11 that morning. I hauled my luggage up the stairs, greeted Debbie, called D. and Lynn to tell them I had gotten home, brushed my teeth, and fell over into bed.

I've got to put my notes into order, and read a ton of books I brought home with me. (The good news is that all these new books are trade books, not textbooks or professional books, so the I paid for the dozen-plus titles I bought what I might have spent on just one or two textbooks.) Also, the spicejar.org server has been wheezing and coughing lately, and needs some detailed attention.

WRGPT 14 Registration Open

While my back was turned (I've spent the past week in an assembly hall in Yachats, Oregon, among a crowd of people barking like dogs; what was your first week of classes like?) registration opened for the fourteenth annual World Rec.Gambling Poker Tournament. WRGPT is a no-limit Texas hold'em tournament played entirely for email. Entry is free, and the only prize is bragging rights.

815 players are registered as I write this. I'm expecting that this is the first time in several years that more people started in the Big Dance at the WSOP than will play. Is this the beginning of the end...?

Good luck to everyone. As always, I intend to r00l you at the final table.